In a report released by Spiegel science journal, the admission that the world has been waiting for for a long time is now here: Global Warming has stopped! Spiegel journalist Axel Bojanowski writes “The word has been out for quite some time now that the climate is developing differently than predicted earlier”. He poses the question: “How many more years of stagnation are needed before scientists rethink their predictions of future warming?”

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“15 years without warming are now behind us. The stagnation of global near-surface average temperatures shows that the uncertainties in the climate prognoses are surprisingly large. The public is now waiting with suspense to see if the next UN IPCC report, due in September, is going to discuss the warming stop.” Axel Bojanowski

To some, this admission is stunning, but to others it’s a sigh of relief that brings hope to the fact that maybe our world is changing so much so that the same old lies that had been exposed over the past 10 years, are now being admitted to. It is going to be quite interesting to see how the governments and IPCC attempt to explain this one to the public, if they do at all.

What some of us may not know is most of what we were always told about global warming and global temperatures by the IPCC and the media were based on computer models that were not accurate in relation to actual temperatures, yet they continue to report these short-term trends as being correct. In a key 2007 report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested it was likely we would see a temperature increase of 3C, with 4.5C considered ‘likely’. However, recent research shows the true figure is much lower – between 1.5C and 2C.

graph

Graph comparing forecasted vs. actual temperature models.

 

For scientists, they are now left to continue to speculate why the warming has stopped. While some have made mention of the natural cycles that have been occurring observably over the past half a million years which explain the warming and cooling perfectly, it appears they will continue to ignore the data. You can read more about this here.

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While some scientists are speculating that the oceans are holding the heat and hiding it somewhere, it is important to note that there have been no further signs of ocean warming since 2003. Although NASA has stated they have picked up ocean warming they have also stated “The uncertainties with the data are too great. We need to improve our measurements.” Spiegel also reports on some other possibilities including that ocean heat storage may be happening very deep within the oceans. But Doug Smith of the Met Office quotes: “This is very difficult to confirm“. Further, Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) states “Without intensifying the data measurement network, we are going to have to wait a long time for any proof“.

Some scientists have also made mention of the fact that there exists a possibility the stratosphere may have something to do with the global temperature ‘freeze’. According to Susan Solomon; “The stratosphere has gotten considerably drier, and so warming at the surface may have been reduced by a quarter.” If that isn’t enough Marotzke says,  “However, climate models do not illustrate stratospheric water vapour very well, the prognoses thus remain vague.”

The truth is, most of what scientists are bringing forth at this time as a possibility have all been addressed in a book written a year ago by a couple of scientists named Fritz Vahenholt and Dr. Sebastian Luning. After the release of the book one year ago, the media tore it apart claiming their theories were crude. It is interesting to see, now that this admission has been released, that their theories were all sound. Moreover, Lüning”s and Vahrenholt’s temperature model for the next 100 years so far has been dead on.

Quite possibly one of the most fascinating remarks Bojanowski makes in his article is “The numerous possible explanations do show just how imprecisely climate is understood.” A man by the name of Al Gore won a Nobel Peace Prize for his work in an ‘Inconvenient Truth.’ Regardless of the fact that hundreds of scientists had the guts to prove him wrong at the time, he still was crowned king due to media manipulation. Now we have this most recent piece of information confirming what many have been saying was obvious over the past 10 years, will the media and government still be able to pull their old tricks?

Our climate is changing, there is no denying that. But do we fully understand what’s happening with global warming? It doesn’t seem to be the case. The scientific community does agree pretty much across the board that climate change is upon us, but the entire scope of what’s taking place is unclear and the giant “factual” claims being made are not entirely what they seem, on both sides.

Sources:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/01/19/spiegel-ends-europes-climate-denialism-european-media-now-scrambling-to-explain-end-of-warming/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2261577/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-Met-Office-report-reveals-MoS-got-right-warming–deniers-now.html


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