I recently spent a month living in the hustle and bustle of San Francisco—car free. It’s a bit of a shift to go from the instant mobility of having your own car, especially a sweet little EV like my Fiat 500e, to relying on public transit, walking, and cabs and car sharing. But I have a feeling that living sans car is the big wave of the future for a lot of people, particularly those living in urban environments.

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I knew, more or less, even before I came to San Francisco, that Silicon Valley and the City are the epicenter of much of the innovation in transportation today. Living there for a month I had the chance to use and witness many of these innovations firsthand.

Is the end of the ICE (internal combustion engine) age coming soon? If San Francisco is an indication of the global future, that answer is “yes.” This article is a follow up to my article here, taking a broader look at the future of cars and electric vehicles.

So what did I learn in the big city? Let me tell you.

Battery Swapping Is Getting Closer To Reality

Better Place, an Israeli company that pioneered the battery swap idea for electric cars, unfortunately went bankrupt because it couldn’t get buy-in for its ideas soon enough. The idea of battery swaps has not, however, died, and it’s a fundamentally sound idea. The point is that rather than charging the battery in the vehicle, which can take a long time, you just swap out the battery for one that is fully charged. This process can be far faster even than filling up a gas tank in an ICE.

Tesla is now pilot testing its battery swap option at a single location in California. Given the relatively plodding pace of Tesla’s battery swap program, I’m not particularly optimistic that it will become widespread anytime soon.

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A particularly exciting new battery swap model is coming out of Taiwan. Gogoro is now offering a polished and stylish electric scooter with swappable batteries that it calls the world’s first “smartscooter.” It started selling these scooters in Taiwan this summer. Gogoro’s business model rests on the viability of its GoStations, which are small kiosks distributed widely in urban areas (in those cities that have been selected by Gogoro). The smartscooter carries just two of these easily swapped batteries and it takes only moments to pull up, swipe your card, and swap out your scooter batteries. Each swap gives the scooter about 120 kilometers of range, according to the company.

Gogoro’s vision is to use these energy hubs for all kinds of electric vehicles in the future. GreenTechMedia’s Julia Pyper wrote in a piece about Gogoro last year: “The company, headed by former HTC execs, quietly raised $150 million to build its urban scooter of the future. Over time, Gogoro’s modular battery-swapping infrastructure could serve other types of vehicles and products.” This seems like a highly viable model to me, at least for smaller vehicles in urban areas. For larger vehicles, however, I’m not sure how practical swapping out a number of batteries will be for the average user.

People Want To Design Their Own Vehicles

An exciting option that may become real before long is the ability to design your own car. An increasing number of cars allow many personalization options for colors and other features. Going much further, we now have options to co-design cars from the ground up, working as part of a “crowd.”

tamhunt-solarLocalmotors.com is one of the more viable sites allowing designers and enthusiasts to design all sorts of vehicles collaboratively. The site describes itself as a “global co-creation community … made up of enthusiasts, hobbyist innovators and professionals. We are designers, engineers, and makers. We operate a growing global network of microfactories. Each destination is a place where innovators create amazing products and consumers come to marvel and shop.”

With the widespread availability of home-based 3D printing and access to creative individuals online, making one’s own car is actually not a pipe dream anymore. Here’s a list of the cars that teams are working on at various stages of completion at Local Motors. One of my favorites at the site: an adult Big Wheel powered by a hub-mounted electric motor!

I learned about crowd-designed cars from Peter Diamandis, entrepreneur and author of the new book, Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth, and Impact the World. Diamandis writes about crowdsourcing car design here.

Owning Your Own Car Is So Last Year…

The future of transportation may be having no car at all for most of us. Ride-hailing services like Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar (all of which happen to be based in San Francisco) have taken the transportation world by storm. Uber may be worth over $40 billion now and it’s just a few years old. It seems that the sky’s the limit for this model, but it is limited of course to urban areas for now. The large majority of people live in urban areas now (over 80 percent in the U.S.), however, so this isn’t much of a limit.

Uber’s gross revenue is expected to hit $10 billion this year, and smaller competitor Lyft’s revenue about 1/8th that amount, both up from, well, nothing just a a few years ago. That’s market transformation for you. Under this current trajectory, Uber and its cousins may take over the taxi market in just a few years.

I used Uber regularly in SF and many other places and I enjoy their newest low-fare option: UberPool. This option allows you to pay just $7 to go anywhere in some cities by splitting a ride with up to two other people. You might wait a bit longer to get to where you’re going but you know the price in advance and if you’re lucky you’ll meet some cool people while you ride.

Right now there is no necessary connection between ride-hailing companies and EVs, but as EVs become more pervasive and the fuel-saving and ride-quality benefits of EVs become more well-known, we can rest assured that ride-hailing services will include more and more EVs.

The next step in ride-hailing and car sharing will be a combination of these new app-based services with self-driving cars. This will be unfortunate for those drivers who want to continue to make money from driving, but users will still benefit from these services. Rather than rely on human drivers to comb the streets waiting for a fare, self-driving cars can remain parked until needed or simply cruise the streets like drivers do today until required by a fare. The big question with this business model is whether cars will be legally allowed to drive themselves with no human on board as a back up plan at any time in the foreseeable future.

Who Needs Drivers?

When will fully automated cars arrive? Tesla, for example, is releasing new autopilot features this summer, including self-parking and the ability to summon your car to your front door with an app. These are exciting new abilities and we’ll find out soon how robust these features are. Musk also stated that the cars are “technically capable of going parking lot to parking lot” in self-driving mode, but this ability won’t be enabled because of the dangers inherent in driving in urban areas.

That qualifier in Musk’s statement turns out to be a pretty big deal. There are a ton of hurdles to overcome before fully autonomous driving will become a reality and it seems that a lot of companies are playing market positioning games as much as they are working on the underlying technology. What is clear, however, is that we’ll see incremental additions to the suite of automated driving options in the coming years, a continuation of the already existing trend among various automakers, including Mercedes, Audi, Tesla and others.

The big question is when will fully autonomous cars become reality? One expert I’ve spoken with recently, Steve Casner, a research psychologist at NASA who has done some work on autopilot issues in relation to airplanes and cars, suggests that it will likely be far later than 2020 before fully automated cars are a reality and that many of the companies today suggesting that full automation technology is already here are blowing smoke.

A number of other analysts at a conference last year feel the same way, according to the MIT Technology Review: “The 500 experts in attendance were not optimistic such problems would be solved soon. Asked when they would trust a fully robotic car to take their children to school, more than half said 2030 at the very earliest. A fifth said not until 2040, and roughly one in 10 said ‘never.’ ”

The essence of the problem is that driving requires the skills acquired by humans to make sense  of and navigate their environment over a period of almost four billion years (since life originated). What we take for granted as easy and intuitive is the end process of this eons-long evolutionary process. We are, each of us, the latest in a literally unbroken chain of organisms that were successful in navigating their environment and reproducing. Teaching a computer that same process is a difficult problem indeed, given the unpredictability of the world around us.

Casner has also explored the difficulties of partial automation and the transformation of drivers into “drivengers” (passenger/drivers). Drivengers may find it difficult to step in when and if required by partially autonomous cars and we might find this a difficult hurdle in getting to fully autonomous vehicles.

From a big picture perspective, however, it doesn’t matter very much whether full self-driving cars arrive in 2020 or 2030. The fact that they are very likely coming before too long is what is important. Even though I fully recognize the difficulties in achieving full automation, and the diversity of expert opinion on this issue, my feeling is that we have reached a tipping point in investment, interest, and technical ability on this issue, such that it’s just a matter of time before the software, engineering, and legal hurdles are resolved.

Last, history has shown that betting against Elon Musk is a bad idea. So even if he’s off by a few years in his projections for fully automated driving, we’d still see such cars sometime sooner than the mid-2020s. Time will tell, as with all things.

My time in San Francisco was a lot of fun and educational at the same time. I have seen the future of transportation and it is bright.

Tam Hunt is a lawyer and writer, owner of the renewable energy consulting company Community Renewable Solutions LLC, and author of the new book Solar: Why Our Energy Future Is So Bright.

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